Modelling the impacts of climate change on Australian streamflow

Abstract

AbstractThis paper presents the likely impacts of climate change on runoff, evapotranspiration and soil moisture in the more populated and important agricultural regions of Australia. The impacts are estimated by comparing the water fluxes simulated by a hydrologic model using present climate data and greenhouse‐enhanced climate scenarios predicted by general circulation models. The results indicate that changes in rainfall are amplified in runoff. In wet and temperate catchments the percentage change in runoff is about twice the percentage change in rainfall, whereas in ephemeral catchments with low runoff coefficients the percentage change in runoff can be more than four times the percenta..