Model-based analysis of the likelihood of gene introgression from genetically modified crops into wild relatives

Abstract

The proliferation of genetically modified crops has created a need for methods to predict the likelihood of gene introgression into related species in situ. We present a model of a modified crop and an associated unmodified plant population removed spatially from the modified crop but not completely isolated from it, reflecting standard practices for isolation of field trials. We develop models for two kinds of life histories, broadly based on Brassica and Gossypium, taxa that are targets for genetic modification. We find that current prescriptions for field trials are likely to lead to escape of transgenes into wild populations when outcrossing rates are moderate and hybrids are fertile. Th..