Monitoring measles elimination in Victoria

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: To weigh the evidence from outbreak data that Victoria has achieved, and is maintaining, elimination of measles. To identify age groups that measles vaccination has not protected adequately. METHODS: Data on observed measles outbreaks in Victoria since the start of 1998 are used to estimate the reproduction number of cases, and the probability that it is maintained below unity, its threshold value for elimination. The relative susceptibility to measles is estimated as a function of age, with confidence intervals. RESULTS: Seventeen measles introductions led to secondary cases, while 22 were single-case introductions. From these, the probability that the reproduction number for ca..