Journal article

Planning for robust reserve networks using uncertainty analysis

Atte Moilanen, Michael C Runge, Jane Elith, Andrew Tyre, Yohay Carmel, Eric Fegraus, Brendan A Wintle, Mark Burgman, Yakov Ben-Haim



Planning land-use for biodiversity conservation frequently involves computer-assisted reserve selection algorithms. Typically such algorithms operate on matrices of species presence-absence in sites, or on species-specific distributions of model predicted probabilities of occurrence in grid cells. There are practically always errors in input data-erroneous species presence-absence data, structural and parametric uncertainty in predictive habitat models, and lack of correspondence between temporal presence and long-run persistence. Despite these uncertainties, typical reserve selection methods proceed as if there is no uncertainty in the data or models. Having two conservation options of appa..

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