Journal article

Uncertainty analysis for regional-scale reserve selection

Atte Moilanen, Brendan A Wintle, Jane Elith, Mark Burgman

CONSERVATION BIOLOGY | WILEY | Published : 2006

Abstract

Methods for reserve selection and conservation planning often ignore uncertainty. For example, presence-absence observations and predictions of habitat models are used as inputs but commonly assumed to be without error. We applied information-gap decision theory to develop uncertainty analysis methods for reserve selection. Our proposed method seeks a solution that is robust in achieving a given conservation target, despite uncertainty in the data. We maximized robustness in reserve selection through a novel method, "distribution discounting," in which the site- and species-specific measure of conservation value (related to species-specific occupancy probabilities) was penalized by an error ..

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