Journal article

Forecasting age-specific breast cancer mortality using functional data models

Bircan Erbas, Rob J Hyndman, Dorota M Gertig

STATISTICS IN MEDICINE | WILEY | Published : 2007

Abstract

Accurate estimates of future age-specific incidence and mortality are critical for allocation of resources to breast cancer control programmes and evaluation of screening programmes. The purpose of this study is to apply functional data analysis techniques to model age-specific breast cancer mortality time trends, and forecast entire age-specific mortality functions using a state-space approach. We use annual unadjusted breast cancer mortality rates in Australia, from 1921 to 2001 in 5 year age groups (45 to 85+). We use functional data analysis techniques where mortality and incidence are modelled as curves with age as a functional covariate varying by time. Data are smoothed using non-para..

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