A s`imple landscape-scale test of a spatially explicit population model: Patch occupancy in fragmented south-eastern Australian forests

Abstract

The results of a landscape-scale test of ALEX, a widely used metapopulation model for Population Viability Analysis (PVA), are described. ALEX was used to predict patch occupancy by the laughing kookkburra and the sacred kingfisher in patches of eucalypt forest in south-eastern Australia. These predictions were compared to field surveys to determine the accuracy of the model. Predictions also were compared to a "naïve" null model assuming no fragmentation effects. The naïve null model significantly over-predicted the number of eucalypt patches occupied by the sacred kingfisher, but the observed patch occupancy was not significantly different from that predicted using ALEX. ALEX produced a be..