Testing the accuracy of population viability analysis

Abstract

Despite the growing use of population viability analysis (PVA), the predictions of these models rarely have been tested with field data that were not used in initially developing the model. We review and discuss a suite of methods that may be used to test the predictive ability of models used in PVA. In addition to testing mean predictions, appropriate methods must analyze the probability distribution of the model predictions. The methods we discuss provide tests of the mean predictions, the predicted frequency of events such as extinction and colonization, and the predicted probability distribution of state variables. We discuss visual approaches based on plots of observations versus the pr..