Journal article

Reliability of relative predictions in population viability analysis

MA McCarthy, SJ Andelman, HP Possingham

CONSERVATION BIOLOGY | WILEY | Published : 2003

Abstract

Despite numerous claims that population viability analysis (PVA) makes reliable predictions of the relative risks of extinction, there is little evidence to support this assertion. To assess the veracity of the claim, we investigated uncertainty in the relative predictions of a PVA model with simulation experiments. We used a stochastic Ricker model to investigate the reliability of predicted changes in risks of decline in response to changes in parameters, the reliability of ranking species in terms of their relative threat, and the reliability of choosing the better of two management decisions. The predicted changes in risks of decline within 100 years were more reliable than absolute pred..

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