Models developed by three techniques did not achieve acceptable prediction of binary trauma outcomes

Abstract

Background and Objectives: To develop prediction models for outcomes following trauma that met prespecified performance criteria. To compare three methods of developing prediction models: logistic regression, classification trees, and artificial neural networks. Methods: Models were developed using a 1996-2001 dataset from a major trauma center in Victoria, Australia. Developed models were subjected to external validation using the first year of data collection, 2001-2002, from a state-wide trauma registry for Victoria. Different authors developed models for each method. All authors were blinded to the validation dataset when developing models. Results: Prediction models were developed for a..