A stochastic mathematical model of methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus transmission in an intensive care unit: Predicting the impact of interventions

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the transmission rate of MRSA in an intensive care unit (ICU) in an 800 bed Australian teaching hospital and predict the impact of infection control interventions. METHODS: A mathematical model was developed which consisted of four compartments: colonised and uncolonised patients and contaminated and uncontaminated health-care workers (HCWs). Patient movements, MRSA acquisition and daily prevalence data were collected from an ICU over 939 days. Hand hygiene compliance and the probability of MRSA transmission from patient to HCW per discordant contact were measured during the study. Attack rate and reproduction ratio were estimated using Bayesian methods. The impact of..