Declining transition rate in ultra high risk (prodromal) services: Dilution or reduction of risk?

Abstract

There is growing interest in the prodromal stage of psychotic disorders, with many services now providing care for these "ultra high risk" (UHR) individuals. However, a reduction in the rate of transition to psychosis has been suspected over the last few years. This has implications for the use of interventions in this population and for the validity of research findings. This study examined the transition rate in one UHR service, the Personal Assessment and Crisis Evaluation Clinic, over the years 1995-2000 and investigated possible causes for the transition rate reduction. There was evidence for a declining transition rate, with each successive year showing a rate 0.80 times that of the pr..