Probabilistic risk assessment of accidental ABO-Incompatible thoracic organ transplantation before and after 2003

Abstract

BACKGROUND: A widely reported ABO-mismatch accident in March of 2003 raised concerns about the reliability of the transplantation system. Because this type of failure is rare and significant, we performed a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of the donor-recipient matching processes for thoracic organ transplantation. METHODS: A probabilistic risk assessment was performed. RESULTS: The likelihood of accidental incompatible implantation was already low in 2003. The PRA model indicates that the likelihood of such an event was 1.38x10 per donated organ. This estimate correlates closely with the observed rate of these accidents. Based on this model, process changes put in place shortly after th..