Conference Proceedings

A Monte Carlo Analysis of Sediment Load from Unsealed Forest Road Crossings

S Jha, A Western, D May, J Turner, G Gardiner, L Oxley (ed.), D Kulasiri (ed.)

Proceedings of the International Congress on Modelling and Simulation | MODELLING & SIMULATION SOC AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND INC | Published : 2007

Abstract

A stochastic model is developed for estimating the long term mean annual sediment load to a stream from unsealed forest roads at the stream crossing scale. It is based on the understanding of the plot scale erosion from the unsealed forest road and a stochastic upscaling. Because the variables and parameter of the model are highly spatially variable, a Monte Carlo simulation approach was used to both identify and estimate uncertainty in the plot scale model of road erosion and to scale the results up to the stream crossing scale. Except for the length of the road, all input variables and the parameter are considered poorly known and their spatial variabilities are stochastically simulated us..

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