Probabilities of heart donors arising within specified times for child recipients

Abstract

Aim: To determine the availability of donor hearts for children of different blood group and weight needing urgent heart transplantation. Methods: Data maintained by the Australia and New Zealand Organ Donor Registry 1989-2004 were analysed to determine the frequency of donation. Probabilities of suitable donor availability within 10, 20, 30, 40, 60, 90 and 180 days were estimated using a Poisson model with the assumptions that traditional ABO blood compatibilities applied, suitable donors were 0.8-4.0 times the recipient's body weight (BW) and suitable adult donors were aged <40 years. Results: Probabilities of suitable donor availability increase with passage of time from 10 to 180 days an..