A biological model for influenza transmission: Pandemic planning implications of asymptomatic infection and immunity

JD Mathews; CT McCaw; J McVernon; ES McBryda; JM McCaw

Journal article

A biological model for influenza transmission: Pandemic planning implications of asymptomatic infection and immunity

JD Mathews, CT McCaw, J McVernon, ES McBryda, JM McCaw

Plos One | PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE | Published : 2007

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0001220

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Abstract

Background. The clinical attack rate of influenced by prior immunity and mixing patterns in the host population, and also by the proportion of infections that are asymptomatic. This complexity makes it difficult to directly estimate R0 from the attack rate, contributing to uncertainty in epidemiological models to guide pandemic planning. We have modelled multiple wave outbreaks of influenza from different populations to allow for changing immunity and asymptomatic infection and to make inferences about R0. Data and Methods. On the island of Tristan da Cunha (TdC), 96% of residents, reported illness during an H3N2 outbreak in 1971, compared with only 25% of RAF personnel in military camps dur..

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University of Melbourne Researchers

John Mathews Author

Jodie McVernon Author

James McCaw Author

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Awarded by National Health and Medical Research Council

Funding Acknowledgements

External funding was received from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) (Project Grant Nos 400588 and 454645, Capacity Building Grant No 358425 and Centre for Clinical Research Excellence in Infectious Diseases No 219275). Jodie McVernon is supported by an NHMRC Australian Training Research Fellowship (No 359238).