A Biological Model for Influenza Transmission: Pandemic Planning Implications of Asymptomatic Infection and Immunity
John D Mathews, Christopher T McCaw, Jodie McVernon, Emma S McBryde, James M McCaw
PLOS ONE | PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE | Published : 2007
BACKGROUND: The clinical attack rate of influenza is influenced by prior immunity and mixing patterns in the host population, and also by the proportion of infections that are asymptomatic. This complexity makes it difficult to directly estimate R(0) from the attack rate, contributing to uncertainty in epidemiological models to guide pandemic planning. We have modelled multiple wave outbreaks of influenza from different populations to allow for changing immunity and asymptomatic infection and to make inferences about R(0). DATA AND METHODS: On the island of Tristan da Cunha (TdC), 96% of residents reported illness during an H3N2 outbreak in 1971, compared with only 25% of RAF personnel in mi..View full abstract
Awarded by National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC)
Awarded by Centre for Clinical Research Excellence in Infectious Diseases
External funding was received from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) (Project Grant Nos 400588 and 454645, Capacity Building Grant No 358425 and Centre for Clinical Research Excellence in Infectious Diseases No 219275). Jodie McVernon is supported by an NHMRC Australian Training Research Fellowship (No 359238).