Validation of "prodromal" criteria to detect individuals at ultra high risk of psychosis: 2 year follow-up

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Identification of individuals "prodromal" for schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders relies on criteria that predict onset within a brief period. Previous trials and biological research have been predicated on the view that certain "ultra high risk" (UHR) criteria detect "the prodrome", but there is a need to test the validity of these criteria. AIM: To assess the predictive validity of the UHR criteria in a clinical population. METHOD: The presence of UHR criteria was determined in 292 help-seeking individuals. At 2 year follow-up the number of new cases of psychotic disorder was assessed. RESULTS: The criteria significantly predicted onset of psychotic disorder within 2 ye..