Assessing New Biomarkers and Predictive Models for Use in Clinical Practice A Clinician's Guide

Abstract

New biomarkers and predictive models that aim to improve the identification of people at risk of cardiovascular disease are constantly proposed. Clinicians need to be aware of the various methods used to assess these biomarkers and models and how these should be interpreted. New biomarkers and models are assessed in terms of their contribution to global fit, discrimination, calibration, and reclassification. These measures, when used in isolation, do not address the clinically important questions of whether the new model predicts risk more accurately than existing models and whether the risks predicted for individuals are sufficiently different to warrant a change in treatment decisions. We ..