Journal article

Probabilistic failure prediction for deteriorating pipelines: Nonpararnetric approach

Azarn Dehghan, Kerry J McManus, Emad F Gad

JOURNAL OF PERFORMANCE OF CONSTRUCTED FACILITIES | ASCE-AMER SOC CIVIL ENGINEERS | Published : 2008

Abstract

Component failures in water distribution systems are usually predicted by parametric models where the model parameters are determined by projecting the past failure rates of the component to the future. This paper shows that in such techniques, failures are implicitly assumed to be stationary random processes. However, due to the nonstationary nature of some influencing factors, this assumption may lead to inaccurate predictions. A new nonparametric technique is developed for failure prediction of classes of pipes considering this nonstationary process. The presented technique uses limited data that are typical to the databases of water distribution systems. In this method, maximum likelihoo..

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University of Melbourne Researchers