Journal article

Integrating ecological uncertainty and farm-scale economics when planning restoration

Josh Dorrough, Peter A Vesk, Jim Moll

JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY | BLACKWELL PUBLISHING | Published : 2008

Abstract

1. Many ecological management problems involve assessing competing options based on the trade-off between economic costs and short- and long-term probabilities of success. In many cases the time to success is crucial, and opportunity costs may be greater than direct costs of implementation. We analyse the problem of how to choose between options when risks of failure vary systematically. 2. Ecological uncertainty propagates through to uncertainty about economic outcomes. We used an ecological model of tree recruitment that accounted for uncertainty surrounding the effects of climate and seed fall, coupled with a farm economics model, to examine how a land manager should act when deciding bet..

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University of Melbourne Researchers