A small community model for the transmission of infectious diseases: Comparison of School closure as an intervention in individual-based models of an influenza pandemic

Abstract

Background: In the absence of other evidence, modelling has been used extensively to help policy makers plan for a potential future influenza pandemic. Method: We have constructed an individual based model of a small community in the developed world with detail down to exact household structure obtained from census collection datasets and precise simulation of household demographics, movement within the community and individual contact patterns. We modelled the spread of pandemic influenza in this community and the effect on daily and final attack rates of four social distancing measures: school closure, increased case isolation, workplace non-attendance and community contact reduction. We c..