Journal article

The resolution and potential value of Australian seasonal rainfall forecasts based on the five phases of the Southern Oscillation Index

Andrew L Vizard, Garry A Anderson

CROP & PASTURE SCIENCE | CSIRO PUBLISHING | Published : 2009

Abstract

We assess the resolution of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) seasonal rainfall forecasting system and calculate the loss in potential value of the forecasting system using a cost/loss model. Forecasts of the probability of a 'dry' autumn, winter, spring, and summer were obtained for 226 towns across Australia, based on the 5 phases of the SOI. For every town the variance ratio, the observed forecast variance as a proportion of the variance of a perfect forecasting system, was calculated for each season. Value score curves, showing the expected value of the forecasts as a proportion of the expected value of perfect information, were calculated for every town for each season. Maps of varia..

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University of Melbourne Researchers