Integrating biophysical models and evolutionary theory to predict climatic impacts on species' ranges: The dengue mosquito Aedes aegypti in Australia

Abstract

Climate change will alter the distribution and abundance of many species, including those of concern to human health. Accurate predictions of these impacts must be based on an understanding of the mechanistic links between climate and organisms, and a consideration of evolutionary responses. Here we use biophysical models of energy and mass transfer to predict climatic impacts on the potential range of the dengue fever vector, Aedes aegypti, in Australia. We develop a first-principles approach to calculate water depth and daily temperature cycles in containers differing in size, catchment and degree of shading to assess habitat suitability for the aquatic life cycle phase. We also develop a ..