Journal article
Decadal prediction: Can it be skillful?
GA Meehl, L Goddard, J Murphy, RJ Stouffer, G Boer, G Danabasoglu, K Dixon, MA Giorgetta, AM Greene, ED Hawkins, G Hegerl, D Karoly, N Keenlyside, M Kimoto, B Kirtman, A Navarra, R Pulwarty, D Smith, D Stammer, T Stockdale
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society | AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC | Published : 2009
Abstract
Decadal prediction, a new field of study, focuses on time evolving regional climate conditions over the next 10-30 years, which is a time period of interest to infrastructure planners, water resources managers, and others. The decadal time scale offers an important bridge for informing adaptation strategies as climate varies and changes. Because decadal prediction lies between seasonal/interannual forecasting and longer-term climate change projections, there is some knowledge from El Nino forecasting that can be applied to decadal prediction, and climate change commitment and forcing changes also provides some information as to how skillful decadal predictions might be. Because an accurate o..
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Awarded by Natural Environment Research Council
Funding Acknowledgements
The authors acknowledge the Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) in Aspen, Colorado, and Director John Katzenberger, for hosting the workshop that laid the foundations for this paper, and particularly all the attendees who contributed to the workshop discussions that led to this paper. Funding for the AGCI workshop was provided by NASA, NSF, NOAA, DOE, and AIMES. We thank Laurent Terray and one anonymous reviewer for constructive comments. Portions of this study were supported by the Office of Science (BER), U.S. Department of Energy, Cooperative Agreement DE-FC2-97ER62402, and the National Science Foundation.