Impact of Uncertainty in Behavioural Factors on Irrigation Demands

Abstract

In this paper, analyses of uncertainty in the results of modelling irrigation demands in two irrigation areas are presented. The Next GENeration IRRigation (NGenIrr) demand model has been used for the analyses. This model incorporates behavioural and biophysical irrigation demand factors and associated uncertainties. On-farm decision making is represented using compromise programming, where tradeoffs between conflicting objectives are modelled, e.g. when deciding on crop areas at the start of an irrigation season, the model chooses crop mixes that achieve a compromise between maximising gross margins and minimizing risk of suffering a water shortage during the season. In the NGenIrr model, b..