Ten years on: Does graduate student promise predict later scientific achievement?

Abstract

We examined publication records of 60 social psychologists to determine whether publication record at the time of the PhD (t0) predicted scientific achievement (publication quantity, quality, and impact) ten years later (t10). Publication quantity and quality each correlated moderately across this time-span. Productivity and impact at t10 were best predicted by number of first-authored articles at t0, and also by number of later-authored articles and doctoral program status. Publication quality at t10 was predicted only by publication quality at t0.