A Comparison of Corporate Bankruptcy Models in Australia: The Merton vs. Accounting-based Models

Abstract

Actuaries have long employed logistic type regression models in their analysis of renewal rates for property and casualty insurance products. This paper introduces an application of such methodology to the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. This is an example of a widerfield area of endeavor where actuaries have the potential to add real value. The results presented in the paper have implications for levels of risk-based capital to be held by insurers and other financial organizations. This paper examines how effectively the default likelihood indicator (DLI) estimated from the Merton model can predict corporate bankruptcy in Australia during 1990-2003. In addition, the performance of the M..