Using functional data analysis models to estimate future time trends in age-specific breast cancer mortality for the United States and England-Wales

Abstract

Background: Mortality/incidence predictions are used for allocating public health resources and should accurately reflect age-related changes through time. We present a new forecasting model for estimating future trends in agerelated breast cancer mortality for the United States and England-Wales. Methods: We used functional data analysis techniques both to model breast cancer mortality-age relationships in the United States from 1950 through 2001 and England-Wales from 1950 through 2003 and to estimate 20-year predictions using a new forecasting method. Results: In the United States, trends for women aged 45 to 54 years have continued to decline since 1980. In contrast, trends in women aged..