The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification

Abstract

The rise in Arctic near-surface air temperatures has been almost twice as large as the global average in recent decades1-3-a feature known as 'Arctic amplification'. Increased concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases have driven Arctic and global average warming1,4; however, the underlying causes of Arctic amplification remain uncertain. The roles of reductions in snow and sea ice cover5-7 and changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation8-10, cloud cover and water vapour 11,12 are still matters of debate. A better understanding of the processes responsible for the recent amplified warming is essential for assessing the likelihood, and impacts, of future rapid Arctic warming and sea i..