Understanding mortality in the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in England and Wales

DC Pearce; PK Pallaghy; JM McCaw; J McVernon; JD Mathews

Journal article

Understanding mortality in the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in England and Wales

DC Pearce, PK Pallaghy, JM McCaw, J McVernon, JD Mathews

Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses | Published : 2011

DOI: 10.1111/j.1750-2659.2010.00186.x

Download PDF

Abstract

Background The causes of recurrent waves in the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic are not fully understood. Objectives To identify the risk factors for influenza onset, spread and mortality in waves 1, 2 and 3 (summer, autumn and winter) in England and Wales in 1918-1919. Methods Influenza mortality rates for 333 population units and putative risk factors were analysed by correlation and by regressions weighted by population size and adjusted for spatial trends. Results For waves 1 and 3, influenza mortality was higher in younger, northerly and socially disadvantaged populations experiencing higher all-cause mortality in 1911-1914. Influenza mortality was greatest in wave 2, but less dependent on..

View full abstract

University of Melbourne Researchers

James McCaw Author

Jodie McVernon Author

John Mathews Author

Related Projects (6)

Understanding influenza mortality and the effects of vaccination in the elderly

We will analyse mortality from influenza and other causes to estimate the numbers of deaths from other causes that are triggered by influenz..

CAPACITY BUILDING GRANT: MATHEMATICAL MODELLING FOR IMPROVED PLANNING OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES CONTROL POLICY

We will develop high-level technical capacity in mathematical modeling of infectious disease transmission and control in Australia, with a f..

Models for influenza virulence to explain changes over time & place, including the differences between 1918-19 and 2009

How can we explain and best control the spread of influenza and pandemic influenza between people?

There is uncertainty about how many people can be infected by a single person with influenza at the start of an outbreak. Some data suggest ..

Modelling the biology & transmission of influenza virus - learning from 1918-19 and other outbreaks

In preparing for a future pandemic of influenza, it is important to learn as much as possible from what happened in the past, particularly f..

Understanding how infections spread in families and the wider community to improve vaccine policy.

Childhood immunisation has been enormously successful at preventing death and disease. Not all vaccines provide life-long protection, howeve..

Grants

Awarded by National Health and Medical Research Council

Funding Acknowledgements

We thank Niall Johnson for advice on urban-rural categorisation of administrative units in the RGdata.XLS dataset. We acknowledge the UK Data Archive for access to the following: the influenza mortality data compiled by Niall Johnson, Crown copyright held jointly with Niall Johnson; and historical boundary data, provided through EDINA UKBORDERS with the support of the ESRC and JISC which uses boundary material which is a copyright of the Great Britain Historic GIS Project (GBHGISP), Portsmouth University, the Crown, the Post Office and the ED-LINE consortium, while assigning no responsibility to these data providers for further analyses and interpretation. We also acknowledge the GBHGISP for the acreage data (A vision of Britain through time). We acknowledge the Office for National Statistics and the Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions for access to historical all-cause mortality data and the Indices of Deprivation, respectively. We also thank the National Health and Medical Research Council (Grant Nos 400588, 454645, and 566908, CDA Grant No 566635, Capacity Building Grant No 358425, and Urgent Research Grant No 628977), the University of Melbourne, and the Murdoch Children's Research Institute for supporting this research, Christopher McCaw for advice and data access, and Kirsty Bolton for comments on the manuscript.