The Markovian binary tree applied to demography

Abstract

We apply matrix analytic methods and branching processes theory to a comparison of female populations in different countries. We show how the same mathematical model allows us to determine characteristics about individual women, such as the distribution of her lifetime, the time until her first and her last daughter, and the number of daughters, as well as to analyze properties of the whole female family generated by a first woman, such as the extinction probability of the family, the distributions of the time until extinction, of the family size at any given time and of the total progeny. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.