Journal article
Future climate change in the Southern Hemisphere: Competing effects of ozone and greenhouse gases
JM Arblaster, GA Meehl, DJ Karoly
Geophysical Research Letters | AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION | Published : 2011
DOI: 10.1029/2010GL045384
Abstract
Future anthropogenic climate change in the Southern Hemisphere is likely to be driven by two opposing effects, stratospheric ozone recovery and increasing greenhouse gases. We examine simulations from two coupled climate models in which the details of these two forcings are known. While both models suggest that recent positive summertime trends in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will reverse sign over the coming decades as the ozone hole recovers, climate sensitivity appears to play a large role in modifying the strength of their SAM response. Similar relationships are found between climate sensitivity and SAM trends when the analysis is extended to transient CO2 simulations from other coupl..
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Awarded by National Science Foundation
Funding Acknowledgements
We acknowledge the modeling groups, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the WCRP's Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) for their roles in making available the WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset. Support of this dataset is provided by the Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy. Portions of this study were supported by the Office of Science (BER), U.S. Department of Energy, Cooperative Agreement DE-FC02-97ER62402, and the NSF. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the NSF. We thank Judith Perlwitz and Clara Deser for helpful discussions and Scott Power and two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments.