Journal article

Structure of the transport uncertainty in mesoscale inversions of CO2 sources and sinks using ensemble model simulations

T Lauvaux, O Pannekoucke, C Sarrat, F Chevallier, P Ciais, J Noilhan, PJ Rayner



We study the characteristics of a statistical ensemble of mesoscale simulations in order to estimate the model error in the simulation of CO 2 concentrations. The ensemble consists of ten members and the reference simulation using the operationnal short range forecast PEARP, perturbed using the Singular Vector technique. We then used this ensemble of simulations as the initial and boundary conditions for the meso scale model (Méso-NH) simulations, which uses CO2 fluxes from the ISBA-A-gs land surface model. The final ensemble represents the model dependence to the boundary conditions, conserving the physical properties of the dynamical schemes, but excluding the intrinsic error of the model...

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University of Melbourne Researchers


Funding Acknowledgements

Thanks to J. Nicolau for the Arpege simulations using the PEARP operationnal system of Meteo France, and Dusanka Zupanski at Colorado State University for fruitful discussions about ensemble methodology. Thanks to all participants in the CERES campaign for making their data freely available on the official website ( This study was co-funded by the European Commission under projects FP6 CarboEurope and FR7 COCOS.