Expert Status and Performance
Mark A Burgman, Marissa McBride, Raquel Ashton, Andrew Speirs-Bridge, Louisa Flander, Bonnie Wintle, Fiona Fidler, Libby Rumpff, Charles Twardy
PLOS ONE | PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE | Published : 2011
Expert judgements are essential when time and resources are stretched or we face novel dilemmas requiring fast solutions. Good advice can save lives and large sums of money. Typically, experts are defined by their qualifications, track record and experience. The social expectation hypothesis argues that more highly regarded and more experienced experts will give better advice. We asked experts to predict how they will perform, and how their peers will perform, on sets of questions. The results indicate that the way experts regard each other is consistent, but unfortunately, ranks are a poor guide to actual performance. Expert advice will be more accurate if technical decisions routinely use ..View full abstract
Awarded by Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency (IARPA) via Department of Interior National Business Center
This research was supported by the Australian Centre of Excellence for Risk Analysis (ACERA) and by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency (IARPA) via Department of Interior National Business Center contract number D11PC20062. The United States Government is authorized to reproduce and distribute reprints for Governmental purposes notwithstanding any copyright annotation thereon. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.