Journal article
A mathematical framework for estimating pathogen transmission fitness and inoculum size using data from a competitive mixtures animal model
JM McCaw, N Arinaminpathy, AC Hurt, J McVernon, AR McLean
Plos Computational Biology | Published : 2011
Abstract
We present a method to measure the relative transmissibility ("transmission fitness") of one strain of a pathogen compared to another. The model is applied to data from "competitive mixtures" experiments in which animals are co-infected with a mixture of two strains. We observe the mixture in each animal over time and over multiple generations of transmission. We use data from influenza experiments in ferrets to demonstrate the approach. Assessment of the relative transmissibility between two strains of influenza is important in at least three contexts: 1) Within the human population antigenically novel strains of influenza arise and compete for susceptible hosts. 2) During a pandemic event,..
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Grants
Awarded by National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Acknowledgements
James McCaw completed this work while visiting the Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, supported by the Melbourne School of Population Health and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (Capacity Building Grant 358425). The experimental data was made available by the Melbourne WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, which is supported by the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing. Jodie McVernon is supported by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (Career Development Award 566635). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.