A stochastic coverage model for erosion events caused by the intersection of burnt forest and convective thunderstorms

Abstract

Soil erosion events following fire can wash sediment and ash into streams and reservoirs, contaminating water supplies for cities and towns. These risks are real, yet difficult to quantify, constraining the optimal selection of preventative and remedial options such as prescribed burning and investment in water treatment infrastructure. Non-stationary climate and fire regimes resulting from climate change add to this difficulty. What is the chance of a water supply becoming unusable due to fire? Will this increase with climate change? Will prescribed burning increase or decrease this risk? Answering these questions is challenging because both fire and rainfall regimes are already complex pro..