Time-series modelling of groundwater head and its de-composition to historic climate periods

Abstract

For many decades, throughout much of Australia, considerable public investment has been made in establishing and monitoring groundwater bores. To improve the value extracted from this data set, this paper presents a new, and statistically robust, hydrograph analysis method. It extends an existing transfer function-noise model by inclusion of a derived soil moisture state variable. It allows simulation of a groundwater hydrograph using only climate forcing and does not resort to, as per the HARTT model, adoption of an unexplained temporal trend or an assumption of first order stationary climate forcing. Furthermore, the contribution from historic climate can be decomposed into that from vario..