Wildfire risk to water supply catchments: A Monte Carlo simulation model

Abstract

Wildfires create burnt areas which may be vulnerable to increased erosion when affected by high intensity or long duration storm rainfall. This vulnerability is most apparent in the first year after fire and reduces as soil and vegetation recover. Post-fire erosion events may deliver large quantities of sediment and associated contaminants to streams and reservoirs, potentially resulting in water that is undeliverable to cities and towns. A suitable model to determine the magnitude and likelihood of large sediment loads initiated by the random combination of fire and storm rainfall in south-eastern Australian forests does not currently exist. A new model is being developed that determines th..