A predictive model of avian natal dispersal distance provides prior information for investigating response to landscape change

Abstract

1. Informative Bayesian priors can improve the precision of estimates in ecological studies or estimate parameters for which little or no information is available. While Bayesian analyses are becoming more popular in ecology, the use of strongly informative priors remains rare, perhaps because examples of informative priors are not readily available in the published literature. 2. Dispersal distance is an important ecological parameter, but is difficult to measure and estimates are scarce. General models that provide informative prior estimates of dispersal distances will therefore be valuable. 3. Using a world-wide data set on birds, we develop a predictive model of median natal dispersal d..