Journal article
Procrustes based metrics for spatial validation and calibration of two-dimensional perimeter spread models: A case study considering fire
TJ Duff, DM Chong, P Taylor, KG Tolhurst
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology | ELSEVIER | Published : 2012
Abstract
A number of phenomena in natural systems exhibit spread from a point source facilitated by a transport vector. Such occurrences are an important focus of landscape management, and include fires, wind driven disease and pollutant spills. Two-dimensional dynamic spread models are used to simulate the impacts of such events, determine risks and optimise responses. These models produce spatially coherent outputs that are not easily verified through traditional regression approaches. Validation of predictions is an essential part of model development and is necessary for the improvement of predictive performance. Current methods of evaluation are rarely systematic and are typically undertaken thr..
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Funding Acknowledgements
This work was undertaken as part of the project 'Fire impact and risk evaluation decision support tool' which was funded by Bush-fire Cooperative Research Centre. We gratefully acknowledge the support and cooperation of the Department of Sustainability and Environment, Victoria and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. We would like to acknowledge the contribution of Dr. Marilyn Johnson which substantially improved our manuscript. We would also like to recognise the voluntary contribution of the developers of the R statistical project, in particular the packages sp and vegan. We also gratefully acknowledge the contributions of our anonymous referees whose input helped us improve this work.