Journal article

Likely effectiveness of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating influenza virus transmission in Mongolia

KJ Bolton, JM McCaw, R Moss, RS Morris, S Wang, A Burma, B Darma, D Narangerel, P Nymadawa, J McVernon



OBJECTIVE: To assess the likely benefit of the interventions under consideration for use in Mongolia during future influenza pandemics. METHODS: A stochastic, compartmental patch model of susceptibility, exposure, infection and recovery was constructed to capture the key effects of several interventions--travel restrictions, school closure, generalized social distancing, quarantining of close contacts, treatment of cases with antivirals and prophylaxis of contacts--on the dynamics of influenza epidemics. The likely benefit and optimal timing and duration of each of these interventions were assessed using Latin-hypercube sampling techniques, averaging across many possible transmission and soc..

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Awarded by National Influenza Centre in Mongolia

Awarded by National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD)

Funding Acknowledgements

The authors thank medical personnel in the Mongolian influenza sentinel surveillance sites for collecting morbidity and mortality data and samples for virological examination, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Atlanta, USA) for the technical and financial support of the National Influenza Centre in Mongolia, through the US/Mongolia Cooperative Agreement (projects U50/CCU024411 and IU51IP000331). The staff of the National Emergency Management Agency kindly provided support during fieldwork in Mongolia in July 2010.This paper reports on work commissioned by the Avian and Human Influenza Control, Preparedness and Response Project, National Emergency Management Agency, Mongolia, sponsored by The World Bank. Authors received support from a University of Melbourne McKenzie Fellowship (KJB) and a National Health and Medical Research Council Career Development Award (JM).