Journal article

Estimating global arthropod species richness: refining probabilistic models using probability bounds analysis

Andrew J Hamilton, Vojtech Novotny, Edward K Waters, Yves Basset, Kurt K Benke, Peter S Grimbacher, Scott E Miller, G Allan Samuelson, George D Weiblen, Jian DL Yen, Nigel E Stork

Oecologia | SPRINGER | Published : 2013


A key challenge in the estimation of tropical arthropod species richness is the appropriate management of the large uncertainties associated with any model. Such uncertainties had largely been ignored until recently, when we attempted to account for uncertainty associated with model variables, using Monte Carlo analysis. This model is restricted by various assumptions. Here, we use a technique known as probability bounds analysis to assess the influence of assumptions about (1) distributional form and (2) dependencies between variables, and to construct probability bounds around the original model prediction distribution. The original Monte Carlo model yielded a median estimate of 6.1 millio..

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Awarded by National Science Foundation (USA)

Awarded by Grant Agency of the Czech Republic

Awarded by Czech Ministry of Education

Awarded by Darwin Initiative (UK)

Awarded by Division Of Environmental Biology

Funding Acknowledgements

Cindy Hauser provided useful technical comments on a draft of this manuscript. The host specificity studies in New Guinea, upon which this model draws substantially, were supported by the National Science Foundation (USA) (DEB-0841885), Christensen Fund (USA), Grant Agency of the Czech Republic (206/09/0115), Czech Academy of Sciences, the Swedish Natural Science Research Council, Czech Ministry of Education (CZ.1.07/2.3.00/20.0064, LH11008), Otto Kinne Foundation, Darwin Initiative (UK) (19-008), International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology (ICIPE) and Bishop Museum. Parataxonomists in New Guinea are thanked for their assistance and are listed in Novotny et al. (2002). This paper is dedicated to the late Ken Hamilton, the consummate logician and giver.