Journal article

Indirect comparison: relative risk fallacies and odds solution

Simon Eckermann, Michael Coory, Andrew R Willan

Journal of Clinical Epidemiology | ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC | Published : 2009


OBJECTIVE: When undertaking indirect comparisons, relative risk (RR) is often suggested as an appropriate indicator of treatment effect, particularly where baseline (common comparator) risks differ. In this article, we demonstrate that such use of RR in indirect comparisons is not necessarily stable with respect to framing of outcomes. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Use of RR is shown to lead to inferential fallacies where, for example, a new therapy is suggested to reduce both mortality and survival risk. Conditions under which the inferential fallacy arises and an odds solution are illustrated in indirect comparison of natalizumab and interferon beta-1b for multiple sclerosis. RESULTS: Using RR..

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