A stochastic-based performance prediction model for road network pavement maintenance

Abstract

This paper presents details of the development and implementation of a stochastic-based performance-prediction model using the Markov chains method for road network pavement maintenance. As well as the difficulty in the process of developing the transition probability matrix (TPM) on the basis of historical data, the way of presenting the results and their interpretation become challenges for the use of stochastic-based performance prediction models. The analysis uses a database developed by the State of Victoria, Australia, consisting of 2197 road sections. Predicted distributions of network-level pavement conditions after maintenance treatments based on Markov chain principles are presente..