Journal article

Rotavirus within day care centres in Oxfordshire, UK: characterization of partial immunity

LJ White, J Buttery, B Cooper, DJ Nokes, GF Medley



Repeated measures data for rotavirus infection in children within 14 day care centres (DCCs) in the Oxfordshire area, UK, are used to explore aspects of rotavirus transmission and immunity. A biologically realistic model for the transmission of infection is presented as a set of probability models suitable for application to the data. Two transition events are modelled separately: incidence and recovery. The complexity of the underlying mechanistic model is reflected in the choice of the fixed variables in the probability models. Parameter estimation was carried out using a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method. We use the parameter estimates obtained to build a profile of the natural his..

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Awarded by Wellcome Trust

Awarded by European Commission

Awarded by NHS Executive South East Project

Funding Acknowledgements

The authors gratefully acknowledge the support and advice from Prof. Paul Burton (Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, UK) on the model formulation and coding in WINBUGS. They also gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the Wellcome Trust, grant nos 061584 and 076278, the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation (FCG), the Portuguese Research Council (FCT) and the European Commission, grant MEXT-CT-2004-14338. The original study of rotavirus infection in community child care centres was supported by NHS Executive South East Project Grant Scheme (grant no. SPGS769).