Journal article

Evaluating the accuracy and calibration of expert predictions under uncertainty: predicting the outcomes of ecological research

Marissa F McBride, Fiona Fidler, Mark A Burgman

DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS | WILEY | Published : 2012

Abstract

Aim Expert knowledge routinely informs ecological research and decision-making. Its reliability is often questioned, but is rarely subject to empirical testing and validation. We investigate the ability of experts to make quantitative predictions of variables for which the answers are known. Location Global. Methods Experts in four ecological subfields were asked to make predictions about the outcomes of scientific studies, in the form of unpublished (in press) journal articles, based on information in the article introduction and methods sections. Estimates from students were elicited for one case study for comparison. For each variable, participants assessed a lower and upper bound, best g..

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