Journal article

Drivers and consequences of influenza antiviral resistant-strain emergence in a capacity-constrained pandemic response

Mathew P Dafilis, Robert Moss, Jodie McVernon, James McCaw

EPIDEMICS | ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV | Published : 2012

Abstract

Antiviral agents remain a key component of most pandemic influenza preparedness plans, but there is considerable uncertainty regarding their optimal use. In particular, concerns exist regarding the likelihood of wide-scale distribution to select for drug-resistant variants. We used a model that considers the influence of logistical constraints on diagnosis and drug delivery to consider achievable 'reach' of alternative antiviral intervention strategies targeted at cases of varying severity, with or without pre-exposure prophylaxis of contacts. To identify key drivers of epidemic mitigation and resistance emergence, we used Latin hypercube sampling to explore plausible ranges of parameters de..

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Grants

Awarded by National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) of Australia's urgent H1N1 research


Awarded by Capacity Building Grant


Awarded by NHMRC Career Development Award


Awarded by ARC Future Fellowship


Funding Acknowledgements

This project was funded through the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) of Australia's urgent H1N1 research (628974) and Capacity Building Grant (358425) schemes. JMcV is supported by an NHMRC Career Development Award (566635). JMcC is supported by an ARC Future Fellowship (FT110100250). The Murdoch Childrens Research Institute was supported by the Victorian Government's Operational Infrastructure Support Program.