Facilitated expert judgment of environmental risks: Acquiring and analysing imprecise data

Abstract

Expert judgment is essential for most practical, science-based risk analyses and forecasts. Typically, experts are asked to provide judgments in precise quantitative language. This requirement is a significant impediment to accurate and well-calibrated judgments because many scientists routinely misinterpret formal statistical language and concepts. Cognitive biases compound these conceptual and linguistic misunderstandings, compromising potentially vital information. We designed a protocol to remedy this problem, using a trained facilitator who deployed a range of techniques to elicit knowledge for a case study of recycled water contamination. The elicitation generated a range of imprecise ..