Global warming under old an new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates

Abstract

Climate projections for the fourth assessment report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were based on scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) and simulations of the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Since then, a new set of four scenarios (the representative concentration pathways or RCPs) was designed. Climate projections in the IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5) will be based on the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), which incorporates the latest versions of climate models and focuses on RCPs. This implies that by AR5 both models and scenarios will have changed, making a compar..