Analysing and mapping species range dynamics using occupancy models

Abstract

Aim: Our aims are: (1) to highlight the power of dynamic occupancy models for analysing species range dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection; (2) to emphasize the flexibility to model effects of environmental covariates in the dynamics parameters (extinction and colonization probability); and (3) to illustrate the development of predictive maps of range dynamics by projecting estimated probabilities of occupancy, local extinction and colonization. Location: Switzerland. Methods: We used data from the Swiss breeding bird survey to model the Swiss range dynamics of the European crossbill (Loxia curvirostra) from 2000 to 2007. Within-season replicate surveys at each 1 km2 sample unit..